Final Golden Globes Predictions: It’s No Laughing Matter in a Competitive Comedy/Musical Race
Commentary on the Golden Globes Awards (as of December 5, 2025): Left is right, up is down, and for some reason, the comedic Golden Globes are far more competitive than the dramatic ones. This awards season’s unpredictable nature is still unprecedented.
The Globes are expected to be one of the most unpredictable film-related events. However, this year offers a surprise that few anticipated: the comedy/musical categories are now more competitive, prestigious, and stacked than the drama races, upending long-held beliefs about Hollywood’s “fun” categories.
Lighter crowd-pleasers or less awards-focused movies have historically found a home in the comedy/musical categories of the Globes; consider “Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason.”
Leading the genre change is Universal’s “Wicked: For Good,” which has dominated critics and the box office, putting it in a fierce three-way race with Warner Bros.’ “One Battle After Another” and A24’s “Marty Supreme.” Timothée Chalamet is in a strong position to win his first Globe in Josh Safdie’s ping-pong dramedy, if he can defeat other heavyweights like Leonardo DiCaprio in “One Battle After Another,” George Clooney in “Jay Kelly,” and a revitalized Ethan Hawke in “Blue Moon.”
With Focus Features’ “Bugonia,” Yorgos Lanthimos maintains his explosive Globes momentum after being nominated for “Poor Things” and “The Favourite.” Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons, two celebrities, are expected to submit strong bids in the acting contests. In addition, Rian Johnson’s “Wake Up Dead Man”
This year, three sports biopics are in the running: The Smashing Machine, about UFC fighter Mark Kerr; Christy, which follows boxer Christy Martin; and Marty Supreme, about a table tennis player’s quest for greatness.
Conspiracy theory drama Bugonia, a new Frankenstein movie, Hollywood parody Jay Kelly, and music biopic Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere are among their rivals.
Drama involving sexual assault Following The Hunt, a biopic about Lorenz Hart Blue Moon, a thriller about missiles A Study on Loneliness in a House of Dynamite Train Dreams is a romantic musical tale. Song Sung Blue and the John Bishop-inspired They are also in competition with Is This Thing On?
Additionally, a number of movies qualified for the non-English language award, including Sentimental Value, No Other Choice, and The Secret Agent,
Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) might be nominated for the role of table tennis player Marty Mauser, and Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) might make a comeback to the awards race for his portrayal of a former revolutionary.
Sydney Sweeney (Christy) has received accolades for her portrayal of boxer Christy Martin’s ascent to prominence in the 1990s and her husband’s subsequent attempt to kill her, while Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande could repeat the nods they received for the previous movie.
While George Clooney and Adam Sandler are in the running for Jay Kelly, which is about an aging Hollywood actor struggling with his life decisions, Dwayne Johnson may receive recognition for his MMA thriller The Smashing Machine, which is the blockbuster star’s first major awards play.
Cynthia Erivo is the obvious front-runner to reprise her role as Elphaba in Jon M. Chu’s comedy/musical “Wicked: For Good.” Ariana Grande, her co-star, is a prominent supporting actress as well. The remaining spots are being contested by Rose Byrne (“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You“), Chase Infiniti (“One Battle”), Kate Hudson (“Song Sung Blue”), and Amanda Seyfried (“The Testament of Ann Lee”). Dakota Johnson (“Materialists”), Pamela Anderson (“The Naked Gun”), and Globe darling Olivia Colman (“The Roses”) are hoping to sneak in.
Julia Roberts (After the Hunt), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), and Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere) are among the other celebrities in the running.
Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent), Jennifer Lawrence (Die My Love), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), and Chase Infiniti and Sean Penn (both One Battle After Another) are also probably going to be recognized.
The Golden Globes acknowledge television as well, in contrast to many other awards season events, even though the cinema categories may make the most attention.Actors like Fernanda Torres and Sebastian Stan, as well as movies like I’m Still Here and Flow, which both went on to win Oscars, benefited greatly from last year’s Golden Globe victories.
The Globes are also well-known for mocking celebrities; the opening monologues of former hosts including Amy Poehler, Ricky Gervais, Seth Meyers, and Tina Fey have frequently produced some of the most viral moments of the evening.
After a corruption controversy in 2021, the Globes were criticized and had trouble finding suitable hosts for a few years. However, last year, with US comedian Nikki Glaser giving a barnstorming monologue, things started to improve.
All eyes will be on the limited series category this year to see if the British drama Adolescence will win as many awards as it did in September.
Chalamet, who has already received four Globe acting nominations, might have the advantage in the lead actor category. However, DiCaprio, who has already won three Globes, is still a strong contender for “One Battle After Another.”
In the thriller “The Secret Agent,” Wagner Moura from Brazil has an intriguing subplot. The “Narcos” actress might follow in the footsteps of last year’s breakout Fernanda Torres, who won for “I’m Still Here” before receiving an unexpected Oscar nomination. That movie even received a nomination for best picture, which begs the question: Can “The Secret Agent” sustain the award-season boom in Latin American cinema?Cynthia Erivo is the obvious front-runner to reprise her role as Elphaba in Jon M. Chu’s comedy/musical “Wicked: For Good.” Ariana Grande, her co-star, is a prominent supporting actress as well. The remaining spots are being contested by Rose Byrne (“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You“), Chase Infiniti (“One Battle”), Kate Hudson (“Song Sung Blue”), and Amanda Seyfried (“The Testament of Ann Lee”). Dakota Johnson (“Materialists”), Pamela Anderson (“The Naked Gun”), and Globe darling Olivia Colman (“The Roses”) are hoping to sneak in.
The surge in the comedy/musical categories as voting gets underway reflects a larger realignment in the Hollywood awards scene. These races now feature some of the most intriguing candidates of the season, as well as real Oscar possibilities, and are no longer the Globes’ consolation bracket. Which movie will have the most impact?




